Start studying Lec 9: Base Rate Neglect and The Gambler's Fallacy. Learn vocabulary, terms, and more with flashcards, games, and other study tools. Base Rate Fallacy occurs when a person misjudges the likelihood of an event because he or she doesn't take into account other relevant base rate information -base rate= likelihood of an event occurring out there in the world regardless of what the conditions of a particular situation may be the base-rate fallacy Participants in one study rated fictional food additives that were more difficult to pronounce as more hazardous to health. These results demonstrate that base our judgments on the ease with which we can recall a memory for a particular event. the more easily we can recall a memory for an event, the more frequently we estimate the event to be. Representativeness Heuristic. base our judgments on the degree to which the thing in questions is representative of the category. So, the base rate of being a Christian is 1 in 3 people. The base rate of Americans adults who own cell phones is 9 out of every 10 American adults. We could find the base rate of other things, such as the likelihood of a building having a 13th floor, or the likelihood of a dog being a Labrador. Base Rate Fallacy. A base rate fallacy is committed when a person judges that an outcome will occur without considering prior knowledge of the probability that it will occur. They focus on other information that isn't relevant instead. Imagine that I show you a bag of 250 M&Ms with equal numbers of 5 different colors. Easy Definition of Base Rate Fallacy: Don't think "99% accurate" means a 1% failure rate. There's far more to think about before you can work out the failure rate. There's far more to think about before you can work out the failure rate.

## independence, and base rate information (base rate fallacy--the tendency to ignore Basically, media interest + availability heuristic = media exposure effect.

the base-rate fallacy Participants in one study rated fictional food additives that were more difficult to pronounce as more hazardous to health. These results demonstrate that base our judgments on the ease with which we can recall a memory for a particular event. the more easily we can recall a memory for an event, the more frequently we estimate the event to be. Representativeness Heuristic. base our judgments on the degree to which the thing in questions is representative of the category. So, the base rate of being a Christian is 1 in 3 people. The base rate of Americans adults who own cell phones is 9 out of every 10 American adults. We could find the base rate of other things, such as the likelihood of a building having a 13th floor, or the likelihood of a dog being a Labrador. Base Rate Fallacy. A base rate fallacy is committed when a person judges that an outcome will occur without considering prior knowledge of the probability that it will occur. They focus on other information that isn't relevant instead. Imagine that I show you a bag of 250 M&Ms with equal numbers of 5 different colors. Easy Definition of Base Rate Fallacy: Don't think "99% accurate" means a 1% failure rate. There's far more to think about before you can work out the failure rate. There's far more to think about before you can work out the failure rate.

### The report arising from this effort subsequently generated renewed interest in Yet the focus of each is quite different, reflecting the kind of research done by In this case, there is a short incubation period, an almost 100% infection rate of If this is done unknowingly, it is a simple mistake called a semi-logical fallacy.

Start studying Lec 9: Base Rate Neglect and The Gambler's Fallacy. Learn vocabulary, terms, and more with flashcards, games, and other study tools. Base Rate Fallacy occurs when a person misjudges the likelihood of an event because he or she doesn't take into account other relevant base rate information -base rate= likelihood of an event occurring out there in the world regardless of what the conditions of a particular situation may be the base-rate fallacy Participants in one study rated fictional food additives that were more difficult to pronounce as more hazardous to health. These results demonstrate that base our judgments on the ease with which we can recall a memory for a particular event. the more easily we can recall a memory for an event, the more frequently we estimate the event to be. Representativeness Heuristic. base our judgments on the degree to which the thing in questions is representative of the category.